PREMODERN / POST-BAN
Getting there.
Going further.
What happens after a deck reaches Top 8?
A closer reading of appearances, deep finishes, and the results that stand out.
Reading your saved tournament results…
02 / CONTEXT BEFORE CONCLUSIONS
Change the room.
Change the picture.
First, a brief comparison of events below 80 players and events with 80 or more. Then a closer look at the bigger stages.
80+, 150+, and 200+ are nested groups: a 200-player event is included in all three. Their results are not independent confirmation.
THE READING /
03 / FINISH STRENGTH
Frequency is one axis.
Depth is the other.
The chart separates how often a deck appears from how far it tends to go. Select a point to read its story. Rare high finishes stay visible, with their sample sizes attached.
Top 8 appearances × average finish
Higher on the chart = deeper finishesTournament achievement ranking
Minimum five Top 8 appearances. Broad “Other” / “Rogue” labels are excluded from this ranking.
How the ranking works
Event size weighting is switched off in this report: every result counts ×1, whatever the attendance.
Each qualifying Top 8 result earns finish points: 1st = 3, 2nd = 2, 3rd-4th = 1.5, 5th-8th = 1. Multiply each by 1 + 0.5 × log₂(players / 16), then add all results. Examples: 16 players = ×1, 64 = ×2, 256 = ×3. Unknown attendance uses ×1 and is disclosed per deck; it cannot enter a view requiring known minimum attendance.
The score rewards repeated Top 8 appearances, deeper finishes and larger tournaments. It is not divided by appearances, capped at 100, or smoothed toward a reference. Results within the chosen dates receive equal age weight. Five appearances are required for a rank; ties at two decimals use more appearances, then name. Popularity and source coverage affect totals: this is accumulated achievement, not a match-win probability. Average finish and conversion rates remain separate descriptive statistics.
Where the finishes land
Ten most frequent archetypes in this view. Each bar is 100% of that archetype’s Top 8 appearances; each finish is counted once.
04 / LOOK CLOSER
The standouts.
The loose threads.
High conversion, early exits, and a trophy from almost nowhere. These are descriptive patterns to investigate, not statistical discoveries.
05 / MOVEMENT & SCALE
Does the story hold
as the setting changes?
Changes compare shares of Top 8 slots, not raw counts. The two calendar periods can contain different numbers and types of events. These comparisons do not control for pilots, regions, matchups, or changes in the source’s coverage.
The same archetypes, on larger stages
Each cell shows Top 8 appearances, title conversion, and average finish-band position. A dash means no Top 8 appearances in that group.
06 / READ THE DECK
Every archetype
has a different story.
THE FOOTNOTES MATTER
What these results can tell us.
A consistent sample
Only tournaments with a complete Top 8 enter the analysis. MTGTop8 can supply complete elimination bands (1, 2, two 3–4, four 5–8); TC Decks requires exact unique placements. League reports, confirmed Parallax Tide events, and unaudited transition-week events are excluded. Deck labels remain as the selected provider recorded them; similar names may refer to related builds.
A reference, not a prediction
Every complete Top 8 contributes four Top 4 slots, two finals, and one winner. The pooled reference rates are therefore 50%, 25%, and 12.5%. A rate above that reference is an observed result, not proof of a future advantage. Pilots can recur, and results within an event are dependent.
Standings do not establish which matches were played, conceded, split, or decided by byes. There are no field conversion rates or observed match-win rates in this report. “Rare” means rare in the recorded Top 8 sample, not necessarily rare in the full field.